This week, we converse with Alex Guervich of Hon Te Advisors, a discretionary international macro hedge fund. Beforehand, Guervich ran JP Morgans’s macro guide of trades. In 2020, Hon Te was ranked 2nd in internet return, and a prime 10 rising supervisor. He’s the writer of The Subsequent Good Commerce and most just lately, The Trades of March 2020.
We focus on his positioning heading into 2020: Based mostly on his macro view, he believed the Bond Market was mispricing the chance of financial dislocation relative to an financial slowdown. As soon as the pandemic hit, he pressed these draw back charge bets and different secondary results, resulting in substantial features in his portfolio.
Guervich says he prefers to be the home slightly than the gambler, and most of his trades have a recognized vary of possible outcomes. However he additionally explains the challenges of huge hedge fund methods, like Threat Parity; they create alternatives for smaller extra nimble buying and selling companies (like his).
We focus on why too many profitable traders and merchants turn into “Ultracrepidarians.” Derived from Latin — “Sutor, ne extremely crepidam,” (actually “Shoemaker, not past the shoe”). The reference is to an individual who “expresses opinions on issues exterior the scope of their information or experience.” Over the previous few years, ultracrepidarians have proven themselves in each subject, from polling methodologies to epidemiology to constitutional regulation to army technique.
One of many shocking elements of The Trades of March 2020 was the heavy use of Slack excerpts — about 30% of the guide is Hon Te’s real-time dealer’s slack channel, exhibiting precise time-stamped communications. Each of his books use metaphors — in his most up-to-date guide, buying and selling is a battle with medieval weaponry and shields; his prior guide used the nomenclature of astrophysics: accretion discs, black holes, time dilation, and wormholes are all used to elucidate how his buying and selling unfolded.
You’ll be able to stream and obtain our full dialog, together with the podcast extras on iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, Google, Bloomberg, and Acast. All of our earlier podcasts in your favourite pod hosts could be discovered right here.
Make sure you take a look at our Masters in Enterprise subsequent week with Boaz Weinstein of Saba Capital. The agency makes a speciality of credit score and capital construction investing, together with Credit score default swaps, Tail Safety & Volatility buying and selling. Saba is among the 5 largest SPAC traders (although not in the best way you consider). Beforehand, Weinstein was Co-Head of World Credit score Buying and selling at Deutsche Financial institution managing 650 professionals and a member of the World Markets Government Committee. Boaz grew to become notorious as being on the opposite aspect of the London Whale commerce for JPM, which misplaced the financial institution $2B and netted Saba 100s of tens of millions in features.
Alex Guervich Favourite Books: